Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#50
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.65 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2024.
Strikes out six in no-decision
PDetroit Tigers
June 3, 2024
Skubal did not factor into the decision in Monday's 2-1 win over the Rangers, allowing one run on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts over six innings.
ANALYSIS
Skubal surrendered a leadoff home run to Marcus Semien in the first inning but held the Rangers in check over the next five and left the mound in a 1-1 tie. Skubal allowed at least one baserunner in each inning, but he was still able to earn a quality start despite not having his best stuff. Through 12 starts, Skubal, who has not walked more than two batters in any game this season, has posted a sparkling 1.97 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 86:13 K:BB and tentatively lines up for a home matchup against the Brewers on Sunday.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
90
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
91
How many pitches does Tarik Skubal generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tarik Skubal generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-40%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .207 194 36 6 38 8 0 2
Since 2022vs Right .215 875 269 53 175 41 6 16
2024vs Left .182 48 14 3 8 0 0 0
2024vs Right .193 234 72 10 43 10 1 5
2023vs Left .125 42 4 2 5 0 0 1
2023vs Right .210 268 98 12 53 11 3 3
2022vs Left .250 104 18 1 25 8 0 1
2022vs Right .234 373 99 31 79 20 2 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.42 0.98 134.0 11 5 0 9.9 2.3 0.5
Since 2022Away 3.35 1.03 137.0 10 7 0 10.3 1.6 0.7
2024Home 2.13 0.89 38.0 4 0 0 9.7 2.1 0.5
2024Away 1.80 0.86 35.0 3 1 0 11.6 1.0 0.8
2023Home 1.37 0.79 39.1 3 1 0 13.5 1.6 0.5
2023Away 4.17 1.00 41.0 4 2 0 9.4 1.5 0.4
2022Home 3.34 1.16 56.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.9 0.6
2022Away 3.69 1.15 61.0 3 4 0 10.2 2.1 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tarik Skubal compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.62
 
K/9
10.6
 
BB/9
1.6
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
96.6 mph
 
ERA
1.97
 
WHIP
0.88
 
BABIP
.277
 
GB/FB
1.34
 
Left On Base
80.7%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.9%
 
Spin Rate
2043 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.8%
 
Swinging Strike
15.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Excelling with first pitch
PDetroit Tigers
June 2, 2024
Skubal leads MLB with a first-pitch strike rate of 74.2 percent, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
ANALYSIS
The left-hander is the early favorite for the American League Cy Young Award with a 2.01 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 80:11 K:BB across 67 innings, and he consistently works from ahead in the count. The only major question for Skubal at this point is his workload, as he was limited to 80.1 innings last season and has never reached 150 frames in a season as a professional.
See All MLB Rumors
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Skubal appeared to be in the middle of a breakout campaign in 2022, but the lefty was unfortunately shut down in early August with left arm fatigue, and he subsequently underwent flexor tendon surgery. Before getting shut down, Skubal had posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 117 strikeouts across 117.2 innings. His K/9 dipped from 9.88 in 2021 to 8.95 in 2022, but his numbers were otherwise better across the board, including an impressive 2.95 FIP. Skubal will only be 24 years old when the 2023 season begins, so there's still plenty of potential here down the road, but he's expected to begin the year on the injured list and miss a decent chunk of time. Fantasy managers in standard leagues will want to keep an eye on Skubal, and he could be a decent pickup when he returns, though the Tigers will undoubtedly be cautious with him. He does have more value in keeper and dynasty formats, where his outlook beyond 2023 looks brighter.
To say Skubal's 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were league average is burying the lede. He posted those ratios despite a 5.5% home run rate, second to only Mike Foltynewicz among starting pitchers. Skubal kept his ratios in check with a 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB%. His 18.5 K-BB% was an impressive 27th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Skubal's four-seamer was responsible for 22 of his 35 homers. Better location or even cutting back on its 43% usage rate could help Skubal keep the ball in the yard. The changeup was Skubal's most effective pitch with an 18.8 SwStr%, followed by his slider at 15%. Skubal's potential and likely presence on so-called sleeper lists will drive up the price for his sophomore campaign, potential wiping out profit. On the other hand, there are pathways to fewer homers, with that road potentially leading to elite status.
Skubal had an uneven rookie season, but he emerged healthy and should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. The 6-foot-3 southpaw's 94-mph fourseamer can touch 98 mph and plays up even more due to deception and extension. The rest of Skubal's repertoire is a work in progress, but a big lefty with a fastball that plays as a 70-grade pitch is a nice place to start. He has always been a flyball pitcher, and he gave up more home runs (nine) in 32 MLB innings than he did in 145 minor-league innings (seven). His 8.2 BB% was an improvement on the 10.6 BB% he logged at Double-A in 2019. Skubal didn't need to consistently execute his offspeed pitches to have success in the minors, and he should get more comfortable with those pitches going forward. If a couple of them can emerge as trustworthy offerings, he should be an effective high-strikeout starter who is susceptible to the long ball.
Skubal would be one of the game's best pitching prospects if we just scouted stats. Poor control caused him to fall in the 2018 draft as a redshirt junior out of Seattle University. He has always missed bats at an elite clip and logged 179 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in his first full season. He does it with a low-to-mid-90s fastball (touches 98) with late life that plays up due to a deceptive left-handed delivery. He doesn't consistently hit his spots, but Skubal's heater can be an unfair pitch regardless of where it is thrown (think Josh Hader), especially for minor leaguers. His middling secondaries play up as well because hitters are forced to gear up for the fastball. Sometimes he will break off a quality curveball or changeup, but they are inconsistent offerings. His injury history, command and secondaries point to a lights-out reliever role, but the Tigers will do their best to make him a starter.
More Fantasy News
Blanks Bucs for seventh win
PDetroit Tigers
May 29, 2024
Skubal (7-1) picked up the win in the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader split with the Pirates, scattering three hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Tuesday's game postponed
PDetroit Tigers
May 28, 2024
Skubal won't start as scheduled Tuesday against the Pirates since the game has been postponed due to inclement weather, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Comes up short in first loss
PDetroit Tigers
May 22, 2024
Skubal (6-1) took the loss Wednesday as the Tigers were downed 8-3 by the Royals, giving up four runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Six shutout innings for sixth win
PDetroit Tigers
May 17, 2024
Skubal (6-0) allowed just one hit and struck out six over six shutout innings to earn the win Friday over the Diamondbacks.
ANALYSIS
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Improves to 5-0
PDetroit Tigers
May 11, 2024
Skubal (5-0) earned the win over Houston on Saturday, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over 6.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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