Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

28-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Texas Rangers
10-Day IL
Injury Oblique
Est. Return 4/23/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Our 2023 outlook for Lowe came together rather well in the end as the first baseman regressed to previous levels in the face of the new rules. Lowe remains one of the more disciplined hitters in the league who will patiently work a count while looking for his pitch while being more than willing to accept a walk in any given situation. Lowe's issues against lefties (.223) helped pull his batting average down in 2023, but given he hit .277 and .330 against lefties in the previous two seasons, it would not surprise us to see him recover in 2024 to add some more life to his average. Despite his size, Lowe has league-average speed but Texas has not put him in motion over the past two seasons after allowing him some opportunities in 2021. Lowe is in an enviable position of playing daily in a potent lineup and has the potential to drive in 100 and even score 100 if the guys around him stay healthy all season. 2022 may have been his ceiling, but maybe not. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#251
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Rangers in January of 2024.
May not return this weekend
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
April 18, 2024
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said Wednesday that Lowe will need "about 30 [at-bats], could be more" during his minor-league rehab assignment before returning from the 10-day injured list, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
After kicking off his rehab assignment at Double-A Frisco last Friday, Lowe looked as though he could be ready to rejoin the Rangers by the weekend. However, Bochy's comments suggest that the Rangers are planning for Lowe to have a more extended stay in the minors to get his timing back at the plate before reinstalling him as their everyday first baseman. Lowe has since shifted his assignment to Triple-A Round Rock and has gotten in 16 at-bats over five total minor-league games, recording just one hit (a home run) while drawing two walks. If Bochy sticks to his estimate of Lowe needing about 30 at-bats before being activated, the 28-year-old seems poised to remain with Round Rock through the weekend before rejoining the Rangers for the start of their homestand next Tuesday.
Read More News
Batting Stats
Loading Batting Stats...
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2024 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2023 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Sorare
Loading Batting Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Batting Game Log...
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+6%
OPS vs RHP
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
+30%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+13%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .781 430 44 14 52 0 .276 .347 .434
Since 2022vs Right .826 939 119 30 106 3 .283 .365 .461
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left .642 219 18 4 23 0 .223 .311 .332
2023vs Right .833 505 71 13 59 1 .279 .382 .451
2022vs Left .920 211 26 10 29 0 .330 .384 .536
2022vs Right .817 434 48 17 47 2 .288 .346 .471
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .791 667 82 21 75 2 .275 .352 .438
Since 2022Away .832 702 81 23 83 1 .287 .366 .465
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home .803 353 48 11 48 1 .270 .360 .443
2023Away .747 371 41 6 34 0 .253 .361 .386
2022Home .778 314 34 10 27 1 .280 .344 .434
2022Away .919 331 40 17 49 1 .322 .372 .547
More Splits View More Split Stats
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
Loading Advanced Batting Stats...
Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
Loading Games Played by Position...
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Batted Ball Stats
Loading Batted Ball Stats...
Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Nathaniel Lowe See More
Lineup Lowdown: American League
Yesterday
With Anthony Volpe vaulting up to the top of the New York Yankees' lineup, Ryan Boyer delivers Lineup Lowdown, with trends and movement up and down American League lineups.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
11 days ago
Erik Siegrist reviews the available talent in the American League as the baseball world waits to see what Ronel Blanco can do for an encore.
Lineup Lowdown: American League
15 days ago
Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers is one of the featured players in Lineup Lowdown, with this week Ryan Boyer stepping in with the American League.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
18 days ago
Erik Siegrist checks out the free-agent pool in the AL after the first handful of games and isn't quite ready to go all in on a potential Jared Walsh comeback.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
25 days ago
Ahead of Opening Day, Erik Siegrist reviews AL players whose outlooks have improved since early drafters assembled their rosters, including Rays prospect Curtis Mead.
Latest Fantasy Rumors
Fruitful position
1BTexas Rangers
April 26, 2023
Across 105 plate appearances, Lowe has left 53 runners on base -- second most in MLB.
ANALYSIS
Lowe has spent all of his plate appearances hitting third for the Rangers, and there's little reason to change it up with the Rangers averaging a league-leading 6.57 runs per game. Lowe's RBI total should be on the rise in the weeks and months to come.
See All MLB Rumors
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Lowe had a surprisingly terrific fantasy season in his second full season at the major leagues setting career highs nearly across the board. The .302 batting average was a huge surprise given he is not the quickest of players, but 19 infield hits on mostly weakly hit balls against the shift certainly helped push his batting average up this season. He also finally showed more consistent loft in his swing, and while he still has a 1.5:1 grounder to flyball ratio, that is an improvement over the 2.0 level he was living at in previous seasons. He has always been an excellent hitter when ahead in the count, but 2022 was the first time he wasn't futile when down in the count. Lowe hit .281 in such situations this past season going .179 in such situations previously. If you are banking on him hitting near .300 again, factor in that data point as well as the infield hits with the shifting rules changing. Draft for run production and level set your batting average projections a tercile lower.
In Lowe's first full MLB season, his output was acceptable. The 18 homers were disappointing from a first baseman, but he contributed eight steals after stealing five total in his five previous seasons. Hitting the ball hard is not the issue, with most of his Statcast hard-hit metrics in the league's top 25%. Instead, his power production will be limited if he continues to post a 55 GB%, a number that kept ballooning as the season went on (59.4 GB% in the second half, 62.8% in September). On the other hand, he did show a nice improvement in his plate discipline with his walk rate up and his strikeouts down from 36.8% to 25.2%. He's sort of morphing into an Eric Hosmer clone. His profile has been bouncing around, so it's tough to get a read on his future value. There is some hope for upside if he raises his launch angle and becomes more of a 30-homer hitter. Roster him late if you want but be ready to move on quickly if changes don't come.
Lowe opened the year at the Rays' alternate training site despite having demonstrated he can handle major-league pitching by posting a .779 OPS in 50 games the season prior. Injuries created a need for a corner bat, and Lowe was promoted Aug. 2. He started slow, slashing .071/.235/.143 over his first six games before closing on fire with a .409/.500/.864 line, though Lowe fanned at a 42% clip over those final seven games. Tampa Bay traded Lowe to Texas in December and he's slated to be the Rangers' regular first baseman. Lowe has proven all he can at the Triple-A level, but he's been unable to carry the contact shown in the minors to the major-league level. When he hits the ball, Lowe has made a lot of hard contact with a good mix of flyballs and groundballs to aid both average and power. It's speculative, but there are ample positive signs to take a late flier on Lowe at corner or utility.
Lowe appeared in his first 50 MLB games in 2019, holding his own with a .263/.325/.454 slash line (good for a 107 wRC+) and seven homers. On most teams that would be enough for him to at least start on the strong side of a platoon, but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo already in the fold as left-handed hitters at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, Lowe could be ticketed for Triple-A. Scouts like both his power and contact, and he managed a strong .289/.421/.508 line in 93 games for Triple-A Durham. His plate discipline was particularly noteworthy over that stretch, as he posted a 17.7 BB% and a 20.2 K%, far better than his 7.7 BB% and 29.6 K% in the majors. He had an .888 OPS in 178 PA against same-handed pitching at Triple-A, so a move to a less platoon-happy organization would be a boon for his fantasy value. If the Rays stand pat, it could mean another year of inconsistent playing time.
Prior to 2018, Lowe’s claim to fame was being the older brother of Josh Lowe, the Rays’ selection with the No. 13 overall pick in 2016. Nathaniel was less heralded, transferring from Mercer to St. Johns River State College to Mississippi State before Tampa selected him in the 13th round in 2016. As an older first baseman with minimal pedigree, he wasn’t considered much of a prospect until he exploded in his third pro season. Lowe was the best hitter in the Florida State League (191 wRC+), got promoted to Double-A, was the best hitter in the Southern League (193 wRC+), and finally got challenged after a promotion to Triple-A. His walk rate dipped (15.6% to 7.3%), his strikeout rate spiked (13.3% to 24.5%) and his pull rate jumped by 11%. If he can recapture the patient, all-fields, flyball-oriented approach he showed at Double-A, Lowe will look the part of a big-league cleanup hitter. If not, there is some Quadruple-A hitter risk.
More Fantasy News
Ready for rehab assignment
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
April 11, 2024
Lowe (oblique) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Friday with Double-A Frisco, Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Begins batting practice
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
April 10, 2024
Lowe (oblique) took live batting practice and ran the bases Wednesday, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Rehab games coming soon?
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
April 8, 2024
Lowe (oblique) could be cleared to begin a rehab assignment after taking live batting practice Tuesday and Wednesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Participates in batting practice
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
April 5, 2024
Lowe (oblique) took part in batting practice Friday, Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Heads to IL
1BTexas Rangers
Oblique
March 28, 2024
The Rangers placed Lowe (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Thursday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.