Trade Deadline Strategy: Players to Buy Low & Sell High

Trade Deadline Strategy: Players to Buy Low & Sell High

Your fantasy football league's trade deadline is just around the corner. Whether you are positioning for a deep playoff run, desperately trying to sneak into the playoffs or just looking to play spoiler, there are advantageous moves to be made before you run out of time.

With 151 games in the books this season, there are thousands of data points available to help us project which players you should buy or sell before the deadline. For this exercise, we will leverage matchup-based data using our opponent-adjusted Strength of Schedule tool to identify players who you should consider adding or moving off your roster via trade. These recommendations are based on PPR leagues that have playoffs run from Week 15 through Week 17.

There are about 30 must-start players, including Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson. You won't find any of them listed below, as they are obvious players to roster and auto-start if you can, regardless of matchup.
 

Buy

QB Dak Prescott : 5th-Best Matchups Remaining for QBs

With four consecutive elite fantasy performances, you already missed out on acquiring Dak at a discount. However, he's still worth mentioning because both his fantasy stats and the Cowboys' success has largely been reliant on taking advantage of lesser opponents. That said, Prescott owners may still be reluctant to trust him every week. (I admittedly started Jared Goff over him last week.)

Your fantasy football league's trade deadline is just around the corner. Whether you are positioning for a deep playoff run, desperately trying to sneak into the playoffs or just looking to play spoiler, there are advantageous moves to be made before you run out of time.

With 151 games in the books this season, there are thousands of data points available to help us project which players you should buy or sell before the deadline. For this exercise, we will leverage matchup-based data using our opponent-adjusted Strength of Schedule tool to identify players who you should consider adding or moving off your roster via trade. These recommendations are based on PPR leagues that have playoffs run from Week 15 through Week 17.

There are about 30 must-start players, including Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson. You won't find any of them listed below, as they are obvious players to roster and auto-start if you can, regardless of matchup.
 

Buy

QB Dak Prescott : 5th-Best Matchups Remaining for QBs

With four consecutive elite fantasy performances, you already missed out on acquiring Dak at a discount. However, he's still worth mentioning because both his fantasy stats and the Cowboys' success has largely been reliant on taking advantage of lesser opponents. That said, Prescott owners may still be reluctant to trust him every week. (I admittedly started Jared Goff over him last week.) Like me, many probably drafted a second QB to stream with him or added someone like C.J. Stroud early in the season, making Prescott expendable.

So why should you trust him as a weekly starter? Besides a favorable schedule, not only have his passing stats been elite lately, but his rushing stats are trending in the right direction with an average of 5.25 fantasy points per game on the ground the last four games.

Other QBs to target: Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson

RB Najee Harris : 8th-Best Matchups Remaining for RBs

Through the first five weeks of the season, Harris looked like one of the biggest busts of the year. However, since the Steelers' Week 6 bye, he has four consecutive games of double-digit PPR points. Sound familiar? In 2022, Harris struggled through the first half of the season, scoring just three TDs and never topping 74 rush yards in a game. Then after the bye week, he had six 80-plus rushing yard games with seven TDs over the remaining nine games. A favorable schedule will help position Harris to once again make his fantasy owners happy down the final stretch of the season (though you shouldn't set expectations very high against Cleveland in Week 11).

Other RBs to target: Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jerome Ford, D'Andre Swift

WR DK Metcalf : 2nd-Best Matchups Remaining for WRs

While Metcalf has been consistent, hitting double-digit PPR points in seven of eight games played, he has failed to provide the big, week-winning performances that we've come to know and love. That could change in the second half of the season when the Seahawks face the second-most favorable schedule for fantasy WRs, including by far the most generous fantasy playoff schedule. After receiving limited opportunities through the first four games, Metcalf is trending in the right direction with 39 targets in his past four.

Other WRs to target: Michael Pittman, Tyler Lockett, Marquise Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks

TE David Njoku : Best Matchups Remaining for TEs

With rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson set to start at QB, it's understandable if you're hesitant to trust any Cleveland pass catcher. The case for Njoku as a trade target is simple. First, Cleveland has the most favorable remaining schedule for fantasy TEs. Second, Njoku has been one of the best run-after-catch players in the league, averaging 8.4 yards after catch, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs. Look for his young QB to make short, safe passes to him and give him opportunities to make plays.

Other TEs to target: Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

Sell

QB Sam Howell : 29th Best Matchups Remaining for QBs

Howell is fifth in total QB fantasy points, which could make him attractive to a QB-needy fantasy team. Based on volume alone, his floor remains solid. Unfortunately, his upside drops, as he moves from one of the most QB-friendly schedules through the first 10 weeks to one of the toughest schedules for the remainder of the season. Also note that he won't help your team in Week 14, when the Commanders have a bye.

Other QBs to consider trading away: Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence

RB Kenneth Walker : 31st-Best Matchups Remaining for RBs

In the frustrating fantasy RB landscape, if you own Walker, you have to be happy with his production. However, the schedule gets tougher, and we're seeing some troubling trends in recent weeks. Six of the next seven games are against some of the league's toughest run defenses. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker in each of the last three games, after Walker had dominated the snaps through Week 6. Sell now, before it's too late.

Other RBs to consider trading away: James Cook, Brian Robinson, Javonte Williams

WR Noah Brown : 23rd-Best Matchup Remaining for WRs

Brown is coming off consecutive elite performances, making him a great sell-high candidate. He caught 13 of 14 targets during that period, averaging 25 yards per catch — an unsustainable rate of efficiency. Nico Collins returns from injury this week, which should eat into some of Brown's targets. While two matchups against Tennessee in the fantasy playoffs look enticing, Week 14 and 16 matchups against the Jets and Browns, respectively, should prove challenging for the young Texans.

Other WRs to consider trading away: Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, Gabe Davis, Jaylen Waddle

TE Dalton Schultz : 31st-Best Matchup Remaining for TEs

Like Brown, Schultz should be expected to take a step back when all of Houston's top WRs are healthy for the first time since Week 1. In that game Brown finished with three catches for 20 yards, while Schultz had just two catches for four yards. Add the fact that the Texans have the toughest TE matchups for the fantasy playoffs, and you've got a good reason to move Schultz while he's still widely viewed as a top-10 option at the position.

Other TEs to consider trading away: Evan Engram, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve Bulanda
Steve has served several roles with RotoWire, starting as an intern working on breaking news and analysis, moving to NBA beat writer and (years later) taking over as the "marketing guy" and NFL and PBA contributor. He's also the undisputed best bowler at RotoWire, with multiple 800 series and 300 games. He will be thrilled when fantasy bowling becomes a thing someday.
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